From: Ty - view profile
Date: Tues, Mar 4 2003 2:45 pm
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FYI-- Predictions on the war, since I now believe that it is
unavoidable,
short of an abdication by Saddam.
1. The ground war will start quickly and at night. Allied forces own
the
night and will exploit this advantage to the fullest. The air war will
be
very short compared to Desert Storm -- perhaps as short as one day.
2. The US/UK forces will make an example out of at least one Republican
Guards division and utterly obliterate it. This may happen several
times
until word gets out that resisting the Allies is effectively suicide.
Most
of the Iraqi military will not fight.
3. Casualties from friendly fire will occur and will probably exceed
casualties from enemy fire, despite efforts to handle fratricide.
Leftis and
antiwar types will unsuccessfully try to use this for political gain.
4. The fact that 90% of the bombs will be smart bombs will mean that
there
are few civilian casualties -- but this won't stop Ramsay Clark and his
ilk
from reporting "many thousands" of casualties. When his claims are
found to
be utterly bogus, none of the folks who trumpeted them will retract
their
statements.
5. In scenes reminiscent of France in 1944, Allied troops will be
welcomed
as heroes by jubilant Iraqis.
6. We will find far worse humanitarian horrors from Saddam's regime
than
have been reported thus far. Despite this, no one on the antiwar left
will
admit that removing Saddam is a Good Thing.
7. The presence of journalists with the combat troops will effectively
counter anti-US propaganda that will flow from Saddam and from our
"allies"
in Western Europe.
8. Allied casualties from all sources will number less than 1000 and
will
probably be less than 200 -- stunning, given the size of the operation.
9. There will be no replay of Stalingrad in Baghdad.
10. Saddam's last stand will be in his home town, not Baghdad. I doubt
we
will catch him -- suicide is a likely outcome IMHO.
11. The Iraqis will attempt to use chemical weapons. They will be
tactically
ineffective, but they will cause long term medical problems for several
hundred Allied troops.
12. Israel and Kuwait will be attacked by missiles carrying high
explosives.
Chemical warheads will be tried, but they won't work properly. The
Israeli
anti-missile defense system will work, but at least one missile will
get
through.
13. The ground war will be largely over in a month. Depending on the
speed
of the Iraqi collapse, it may be over in less than 2 weeks.
14. The initial air campaign will completely disrupt Iraqi abilities to
control their forces.
15. Infrastructure will not be generally attacked, though Saddam's
palaces
will be flattened as a matter of principal.
16. Saddam will order Iraqi infrastructure (including oilfields)
destroyed,
but most commanders will not carry out the orders.
17. At least one idiot will be on US TV renouncing his citizenship.
18. Oil prices will decrease once the shooting starts. Depending on how
big
of a surprise the timing of the attack is, this could be a minor
decrease or
a major decrease (if the start of the war is a surprise).
19. The attack will come at a time most of the pundits have agreed it
will
not come (such as on a night of total darkness).
20. There will be few if any suicide attacks on Americans by Iraqi
civilians.
21. The Iraqis will destroy fewer than 20 Allied main battle tanks. In
most
cases, their tanks will be eliminated before they even know the allies
are
present. Due to the near-invulnerability of M1A2s and Challenger IIs to
ancient T-72/62/55/54 models, it's possible that not a single Allied
tank
will be lost to enemy fire. (A recent Fistful of TOWs 2 scenario was
simply
too one-sided to continue playing). There will be as many as 30 light
vehicles (IFVs, APCs, etc.) lost to enemy fire, but probably only about
10).
22. There will be some kind of huge airmobile operation by the 101st
airmobile division. Perhaps to cut off the Iraqi forces facing the
Allies or
to sieze the Iraq oilfields before they can be destroyed.
23. The US Marines will probably again be denied a large amphibious
invasion. Nor will the 82nd Airborne get to airdrop on anything (they
might
well be used as airmobile infantry, though).
24. At least one new "gee whiz" weapon will appear.
25. There will be no mass failures of Allied equipment.
26. The discipline and effectiveness of US troops will be unprecedented
in
US history (except for their performance in Desert Storm). As always,
the
Brits will perform superbly.
27. Rumsfeld will humiliate at least one journalist in a press
conference.
Just some random predictions...
--Ty
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