> I finished reading the article and I think they're really, seriously,
> underestimating Nintendo. One guy was close in his conclusion giving
> 25% of the market to Nintendo and splitting the other 75% between Sony
> and Microsoft, except that I think it's going to be Sony on the 25% end
> and the real fight being between Microsoft and Nintendo.
I just finished reading the article as well. Here's why I don't think
they're underestimating Nintendo at all, and why I still think there's a
large chance Nintendo will screw this up and end up third (again). Nintendo
as a company IMO still shows no signs they know this isn't 1990 still when
it comes to games. They don't have a non-kiddie action/shooter game that
will entice people like Halo or GTA (for the PS2), they've got a lot of kids
games and party games that come out of their first party development shop. A
system cannot compete for 2nd place on 50 different games where Mario makes
an appearance. I do think the Wii will have better third party support than
the GC ever did. However, that may not be as much of a bump as some think it
will be. According to all the screen shots I've seen, the Wii will be the
least graphically impressive of the three, and of course won't support HDTV.
If somebody sees, for example, MOH: Airborne on the PS3, 360 and Wii, the
fact that the graphics do not look nearly as impressive for the Wii as they
do for the 360 and PS3 isn't going to help Wii sales. The controller will
sell consoles initially, but if Nintendo keeps relying on games that are
more 1990 than 2006, the "cool" factor of the controller will wear off
quickly. Ultimately, as with all systems, it's about the games. I really
think Nintendo is underestimating how consumers will feel about a console
when they see it graphically doesn't have the presentation of a 360 or PS3.
IMO they're going to think the Wii is inferior regardless of the fact it
gives you a new way to control the game. When they see a game available on
multiple consoles, they'll generally go with the one that looks the best.
The ability to download old titles is the reason I will get a Wii
because it's not that expensive. However, I don't know how long even that
can keep people interested, particularly if some suddenly find that jones
they've had for Mario just doesn't live up to the real experience of playing
it again on a console. Just to give an example, I loved the TV show Alf back
in the day. When it came on TV again recently in re-runs I watched it for 2
episodes and thought, "Just what the hell did I like about this show?"
Tastes change as people age and sometimes we think the retro experience will
be better than it ends up being. Also, they're eventually going to run out
of titles to offer and there won't be anything "new" from the vault to offer
people so it'll come back to what games they've got to offer that are really
new. I'll get a Wii to play Mario and the rest (they better damn well offer
Duck Hunt, a light gun accessory..and include a new ability to shoot the
damn dog, lol) but without games that are in genre's I like (another load of
RPGs for the Wii isn't going to entice me) the Wii will end up sitting and
gathering dust while I play my 360. That is another area where I don't think
Nintendo gets it either and it holds them back. Except for Oblivion just how
many RPGs sell as well in the United States as action/shooter games?
>> Stay informed about: Is Sony in Trouble? 
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