GW sales down

Alan Ritchie wrote:
> "John Hwang" <JohnHwangCSI.DeleteThis@cs.com.no.com> wrote ...
>> Ty wrote:

>>> How much does the
>>> Scorpion cost compared with the basic space marine?
>>
>> The *SAME*. That is why he is a close combat specialist.
>> He wins in close combat.
>
> But a 1 vs 1 fight is hugely unlikely, so you should account for the
> possibility of one scorpion killing more than one marine.

Totally agreed. And it should also be matched points to measure
effectiveness.

> Even if the marines are inflicting some casualties,
> they rarely win a combat, and always run the risk of
> being routed and destroyed completely.

Which is how GW avoids the issue of basic fights going "too long".

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donovan_borman RemoveThis @yahoo.com wrote:
> To be fair to 40K in relation to other games, maybe picking Space
> Marines as the example is a poor choice.

It is.

Particularly focusing on basic Marines and ignoring upgrades.

Basic Marines are only good for surviving, and Ty's numbers bear this out.

> Roll to hit: Reflects skill in shooting, or skill vs. skill in HtH
> Roll to wound: reflects strength of weapon and/or attacker in relation
> to toughness of target
> Roll to save: Takes into account armor, force fields, dodges, magic
> bubbles, whatever.

I prefer to think of 2 events: roll attack, roll defense.

> Warmachine went with stat cards. I hate stat cards.

It's OK, only because Warmachine game scale is small.


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Ty wrote:
> "FunkyD" <FunkyDFink.TakeThisOut@gmail.com> wrote ...

> Given that my mistakes were of the 4th grade math variety, your math degree
> is probably overkill...
>
>> 1. An unarmored human is T3, not T4 (you are confusing them with the
>> super-powerful marines)
>
> Actually, the problem is simpler. I wrote the email to early in the morning
> and simply miscalculated. 1/2 chance of hit x 2/3 chance of wounding (S4 vs
> T3) = 1/3 chance of killing, not 1/6.

A Heavy Bolter is S5, not S4. The chance is 1/2 (BS3) x 5/6 (S5 vs T3)
= 5/12.

> This is still an underwhelming performance for a machinegun. Hard to
> recreate the carnage at the Somme with such weapons.

I think the Somme had more than one guy with a MG per side.

Also, with underarmored troops charging en masse, even massed lasguns
can be pretty effective.

> Again, hard to recreate the carnage of machineguns past.

Try 10 S4 AP5 Bolters rapid-firing into T3 Sv5+ Guardsmen...

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--- John Hwang "JohnHwang...@cs.com.no.com"
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donovan_borman.RemoveThis@yahoo.com wrote:
> John Hwang wrote:

>>> Warmachine went with stat cards. I hate stat cards.
>>
>> It's OK, only because Warmachine game scale is small.
>
> I do appreciate the fact that they sell the cards seperate from the
> models, and at a reasonable price ($5 for an entire faction I think?).

Dunno. My B&W cards are just fine.

> I still think either IK itself, or gamers themselves will start
> a trend of large scale battles in the future.

Of course. Right now, they're in the Rogue Trader phase. We've got a
decade before they go to mass battle.


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--- John Hwang "JohnHwang...@cs.com.no.com"
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John Hwang wrote:
> A Heavy Bolter is S5, not S4. The chance is 1/2 (BS3) x 5/6 (S5 vs T3)
> = 5/12.

5/12 * 3 shots = 15/12 = 1.25

Where have I seen this number before?

The interesting thing is, remembering the rules to this game is 50
times more difficult than this math is. *grin*
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Ty wrote:
> For that matter, shouldn't a heavy bolter...the 41st century's equivalent of
> a heavy machinegun...be more lethal? If an Imperial Guardsman fires it at an
> unarmored human, the chance to kill is (1/2 x 2/3=) 1/6 per shot. With 3
> shots, the weapon has less than a 50% chance of killing one unarmored human.
> The weapon must blaze away for 2 turns on average to kill 1 unarmored man.
> This seem right to you?

Yup. This is why Heavy Bolters are typically fielded en masse, 3 or 4
per unit, by BS4 troopers like Sisters or Marines...

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--- John Hwang "JohnHwang...@cs.com.no.com"
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In article <lq%zg.3930$uo6.3496@newssvr13.news.prodigy.com>, Ty wrote:
> "jockelinde" <nouser.RemoveThis@notmydomain.se> wrote in message
> news:slrned0s78.ul7.nouser@crux.id.gu.se...
>> In article <FJXzg.613$gY6.486@newssvr11.news.prodigy.com>, Ty wrote:
>
>>>> I think you don't know the math.
>
>>> The odds of a kill in 40K are quite easy to figure: (Chance of Hitting) x
>>> (Chance of Wounding) x (Chance of Getting Past Armor).
>
>>> If you see a flaw in my calculations, feel free to enlighten me.
>
>> The problem isn't math, it's your data. The scorpions were missing
>> their mandiblasters, the banshees were missing their power weapons
>> and there are also missing pieces from the the slugga boyz below.
>
> I think that must be what I meant when I said "[w]ell, my data might be
> screwed, but the math is sound..."

If the data is screwed enough the conclusions will become screwed too.

<snip>

>>> Fair enough. Then I would say that the Scorpion is reasonably balanced
>>> vis a
>>> vis the basic Space Marine. But let's compare the 9pt Ork Slugga Boyz --
>>> 15
>>> pt basic Marine

<snip>

> So the points work okay in this case.

Yes.

> But the Ork is in real trouble against the close combat Marines

Close combat Marines will give Slugga boyz trouble.

> -- which is the real Apples to Apples comparison.

Not really.
1. Slugga boyz are the staple of Ork armies. Tac marines, not cc
marines, are the staple of Space Marine armies.
2. A cc marine is most likely an Assault Marine, which costs 22
points compared to the 9 point Slugga boy.

<snip>

> The math doesn't quite work that way. To determine the probability of at
> least one kill with multiple shots, use the following equation:
>
> 1-((Chance of Not Killing) ^ X)

Only if you're interested in one-on-one fights. One-on-one fights are
very poor descriptions of close combat in 40k, since cc is resolved
at unit level, not model level. Some kills can get lost if you clear
out the entire kill zone, but viewing cc as a sequence of one-on-one
fights will exaggerate that effect. The one-on-one view in this
particular example also has the problem of comparing one 9 point model
to one 15 point model.

<snip>

> Against the Eldar Scorpion, it's worse.

Orks are almost an ideal target for Scorpions. You've already
mentioned something about cherry picking fights elsewhere in this
thread.

<snip>

--
Joakim
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Ty wrote:
> <donovan_borman.RemoveThis@yahoo.com> wrote in message

<snip>

> --A system that punishes movement, so games are largely WWI style slugfests.
>
> --No overwatch, allowing the worst aspects of the ugoigo system to emerge.

Wouldn't overwatch provide a deterrant to movement?

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Ty wrote:
> "Jim M" <hnjcomics.DeleteThis@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.1f3a4c39fd89b526989734@news.east.earthlink.net...
>
>> This is where the GW games have always annoyed me, they talk about how
>> deadly the weapons are that are used in combat, yet you have to roll to
>> hit and then roll again to wound once you have finally determed that
>> your uber weapon has actually found a target, your oponent gets to save
>> against it.
>
> This has multiple die roll fetish has another pernicious effect. Because at
> least 2 die rolls are needed and because a 1 fails on both rolls (1 or 2 on
> the WS hit chart), this means that no matter how powerful the weapon, and
> weak the target, there's a maximum chance to kill of 70% per ranged attack.
> Close combat is even worse -- a 55% chance maximum.
>
> If the target get's an armor save, the chance drops by about 12% per point
> of save for ranged attacks and about 9% per point of save for melee attacks.
>
> So a Bloodthirster only has a 55% of killing a gretchen per attack (unless
> there are some special rules I'm unaware of). <scratches head> I
> dunno...shouldn't the Bloodthirster be able to slaughter more than an
> average of 2.5 gretchen per close combat?

They duck


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John Hwang wrote:
> Ty wrote:
>> "John Hwang" <JohnHwangCSI RemoveThis @cs.com.no.com> wrote ...

<snip>

>>> Nonsense. Point for point, both Scorpions and Banshee will
>>> absolutely *crush* Assault Marines in Jump Packs in HtH, assuming the
>>> Eldar player doesn't pop them with shooting for 22+ juicy VPs per
>>> kill...
>>
>> Well, let's disregard the Jump Packs, since they are optional equipment.
>
> Then how do they get into HtH? Walking HtH troops simply do NOT reach HtH.

Bar Infiltrate, Deep Strike, Zeal, etc...


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Lt. Cmdr. Jim wrote:
> John Hwang wrote:
>> Ty wrote:
>>> "John Hwang" <JohnHwangCSI RemoveThis @cs.com.no.com> wrote ...
>
> <snip>
>
>>>> Nonsense. Point for point, both Scorpions and Banshee will
>>>> absolutely *crush* Assault Marines in Jump Packs in HtH, assuming
>>>> the Eldar player doesn't pop them with shooting for 22+ juicy VPs
>>>> per kill...
>>>
>>> Well, let's disregard the Jump Packs, since they are optional equipment.
>>
>> Then how do they get into HtH? Walking HtH troops simply do NOT reach
>> HtH.
>
> Bar Infiltrate, Deep Strike, Zeal, etc...

Then they are *NOT* walking. They're Infiltrating / Deep Striking, which
has an additional cost above and beyond their 15 pts, which goes against
the pure single model vs single model "calculations" that Ty is so
enamored of as the basis of his conclusions.

--
--- John Hwang "JohnHwang...@cs.com.no.com"
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estarriol wrote:
> "Jim M" <hnjcomics.DeleteThis@gmail.com> wrote in message
> news:MPG.1f3c27bd76a5c039989746@news.east.earthlink.net...
> > In article <bupAg.9901$j9.2919@trnddc02>, JohnHwangCSI.DeleteThis@cs.com.no.com

> >> The Warstore solves this problem.
> >>
> >>
> > How exactly can the Warstore solve the problem of me having to drive 80
> > miles round trip to play a game or fix the price of gas?
>
> Given the good afterservice Neal and Warstore do I am surprised he hasn't
> shipped you an opponant.

If they trained russian mail-order brides to paint figs and play
wargames he'd probably carry them at 20% off.
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<donovan_borman.DeleteThis@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1154647409.436537.144570@p79g2000cwp.googlegroups.com...
>
> estarriol wrote:
>> "Jim M" <hnjcomics.DeleteThis@gmail.com> wrote in message
>> news:MPG.1f3c27bd76a5c039989746@news.east.earthlink.net...
>> > In article <bupAg.9901$j9.2919@trnddc02>, JohnHwangCSI.DeleteThis@cs.com.no.com
>
>> >> The Warstore solves this problem.
>> >>
>> >>
>> > How exactly can the Warstore solve the problem of me having to drive 80
>> > miles round trip to play a game or fix the price of gas?
>>
>> Given the good afterservice Neal and Warstore do I am surprised he hasn't
>> shipped you an opponant.
>
> If they trained russian mail-order brides to paint figs and play
> wargames he'd probably carry them at 20% off.

This thread may hold itself up just by itself. Coke dribbled down my lips
reading this. Way to go Neal!

Berto
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